Merlin project predictions 2016 youtube free#
#Merlin Project Predictions 2016 Free Survival And#.Indeed the transmission potential of a parasite is the product of the transmission rate and the time during which the host is alive and can transmit.
The latter is approximately the time to AIDS in HIV as host death occurs shortly after the onset of AIDS and sexual activity may be reduced in the AIDS phase because of AIDS-associated symptoms ( Hollingsworth et al., 2008). The virulence-transmission trade-off in HIV is important for understanding pathogenesis and is a possible explanation for the significant changes in HIV virulence reported over the last decades in North America and Europe. There, SPVL increased at an estimated rate of 0.013 ( Herbeck et al., 2012) and 0.020 log 10 copies/mL/year ( Pantazis et al., 2014) over the last 28 years. Merlin Project Predictions 2016 Free Survival AndSince many persons at risk of infection do not routinely obtain HIV testing ( Paz-Bailey et al., 2013), such changes may lead to more transmission and more newly diagnosed patients presenting with advanced infection, despite the widespread availability of antiretroviral therapy (ART).The virulence-transmission trade-off is a promising hypothesis to explain changes in virulence of HIV, but this hypothesis and its predictions have so far been approached in a piecemeal manner, by combining data on infectiousness, AIDS-free survival and the dynamics of SPVL from very different cohorts ( Fraser et al., 2007 Herbeck et al., 2012 Pantazis et al., 2014). 8181.To spread, a pathogen must multiply within the host to ensure transmission, while simultaneously maintaining opportunities for transmission by avoiding host morbidity or death ( Anderson and May, 1982 Alizon et al., 2009). This creates a trade-off between transmission and virulence. This hypothesis permeates theoretical work on the evolution of virulence, but empirical evidence remains scarce ( Dwyer et al., 1990 Mackinnon and Read, 1999 Fraser et al., 2007 de Roode and Yates, 2008 Alizon et al., 2009 Cressler et al., 2015). In HIV-1 infection, set-point viral load (SPVL), the stable viral load in the asymptomatic phase of infection, is a viral trait which is both variable and heritable ( Hollingsworth et al., 2010 Fraser et al., 2014 Hodcroft et al., 2014), and has an important impact on the transmission cycle of the pathogen. Accordingly, set-point viral load, the most common measure of virulence, has declined in the last 20 years.In untreated infection, higher SPVL translates into higher per-contact transmission rates but also faster disease progression to AIDS and death. Our model also predicts that subtype A is slowly outcompeting subtype D, with both subtypes becoming less virulent, as observed in the data. Reduction of set-point viral loads should have resulted in a 20% reduction in incidence, and a three years extension of untreated asymptomatic infection, increasing opportunities for timely treatment of infected individuals. IntroductionIs a cooperative project with other working groups at ARI, our project partner the Nonorthogonal Signal Representation group, Signal Processing Laboratory.Merlin Project Info. PAUL GUERCIO is co-founder of THE MERLIN PROJECT (r). MERLIN is the first, scientifically-based forecasting technology that combines equations derived from celestial phenomena with past historical data and blends that information into a 'timetrak (r)' that accurately plots the chronology of future events.The Merlin Project (Research Group).
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